Part 3: The Positive Shift: Capital, Autonomy, and the Global Opportunity (Copy)
6. The Positive Shift: Private Capital and a New Safety Lexicon
Nancy Graham
We need to help investors understand and respect the process, and we need to do a little better on the process ourselves. The pilot programs and early operational trials have been good, but they've been driven mostly by industry coming in and saying, you must do X, Y, Z. What we've learned is that it's actually really valuable. It helps us learn, it helps us watch how things are refined, and we gain more confidence watching the refinement process than from the initial attempts. That's part of how we move forward.
We also have safety management evolving in important ways. A year ago, a group of people with shared perspectives wrote a paper on what new language and lexicon we need to use to talk about higher levels of automation, because the old terminology doesn't apply. There's no pilot in command in some of these new contexts. What replaces that? The controller's role evolves, it doesn't go away. They're going to be a strategic separation advocate in many future scenarios, doing more strategic decision-making and problem resolution than moment-to-moment tactical work. How do we show them what that looks like, build that confidence, and let them help shape it as we go forward?
The role of a pilot in command evolves, in both the drone world and the higher-automation world at higher altitudes, into a systems management organization. What does that mean, and how does that relate to the accountable executive? Where do you document that so the FAA or your regulator can understand the implications? Who is ultimately accountable? What's the thread of safety through your safety management organization? Because it's no longer just people, it's also going to be autonomy. How do we build automation so the people who oversee it know what it's doing?
The example I'd give is the way AI tools have evolved. In the beginning, you'd ask a question and get an answer. Over time, these tools started explaining what they were doing while they were doing it. That's exactly the kind of transparency we need in the automation for a systems management organization. We need to understand not just the output, but the reasoning, so we can assess whether it's doing what we would do, or doing something better in a way that makes sense to us.
There are a lot of positives in what we've learned over the last 10 years that are taking us where we need to go. I only see the runway from here, and there's nothing but possibility.
Jim Barry
I love this section, your comment about outside investment, and the point about investors not always knowing aviation. You've already described 10 to 15 things an outside investor needs to be aware of when investing in this space, and yes, that's part of what our company does. Who would like to add to what Nancy was talking about, whether it's the changing role of the pilot in command, or things that have to evolve so the regulatory process is more responsive to technological capabilities?
John Illson
There's a lot that's going to have to happen. We can look at the end state and agree that's where we need to be, and visualize the benefits. The question is how you get there, managing the change itself. I'm old enough to remember when we first introduced glass cockpits, and pilots had to adapt to managing those systems, sometimes with difficulty, because, as Nancy said, we had to go through the whole experience of understanding what the training requirements needed to be. Even at that tactical level, people need time to adapt, and they will make mistakes in the process. The temptation is to blame the change rather than work through it and understand there's a great deal of possibility on the other side of it.
With automation especially, that interface between the human being whose job description is changing, whose training requirements are changing, who may no longer be responsible for tasks they currently handle but still has to manage the system somehow, how that human fits into the new environment is something I think about a lot. Whether people are comfortable with their new roles and how they engage with the technology, as Steve said, if they're not on board, it's not going to happen.
Stephen Creamer
You're familiar with the Garmin Autonomy system, built into an airplane to be utilized when the pilot becomes incapacitated. There was a situation in Colorado where two pilots had the system take control because of an event that triggered it, even though they were both fine. They thought, what do we do? They let it fly, and now there's discussion around the implications of that. The point is, Garmin Autonomy is a technology that can operate anywhere in the National Airspace System, establish where it is, understand its flight profile, and proceed accordingly.
The question being posed is, what if you gave that level of autonomy capability to the air traffic control system? So, imagine that a controller walks in, sits down, and is told they're working a particular sector today. They're qualified for that volume, and everything in that volume is presented to them by the AI in a way that gives them the contextual rating to work that traffic. They don't have to be a specialist on that particular sector, they're a specialist in using the system to operate it. That’s a huge paradigm shift, with many implications that need to be exposed and worked through, made possible by how you integrate AI and connect airborne systems with ground systems. The lessons being learned in emerging technology are the lessons that are going to inform how we rapidly evolve the management of airspace. To do it right, we need an accelerated method of bringing emerging capability into the conversation with all the right stakeholders.
I am hopeful that the key outcome from this will not be “cost reduction” but an opportunity to better apply the talent and capacity in the NAS workforce to where it’s needed, and to increase the use of simulators so that specialists can stay abreast of developments within a work schedule that’s more conducive to a healthy lifestyle. I believe that outcome will result in better service and capacity across the NAS.
7. What's Next: Vision, Advocacy, and the Global Opportunity
Jim Barry
The Administrator and the DOT Secretary are in front of you right now. Tell me two or three things they should do to better enable new aviation technologies into the system.
Nancy Graham
The first thing you ought to do is talk about your successes. We are not good at that in the United States. If you compare us to other countries, particularly in Europe, they talk about what they're going to do as though it has already been accomplished, and that confidence carries weight. In the US, we're almost reluctant to talk about our successes, and I think it's a cultural thing.
Look at the drone world. Since Part 107 came out, have we had a single fatality? There was one slightly before, but since Part 107, none. Does anybody talk about that? Who's acknowledging that achievement? I work on the drone safety team, and I keep making the case that we should take credit for that because it represents years of careful work. Part 108 is going to build on that further. If we get it right at both the lower and higher altitudes, that learning can gradually make its way into the transport layer. That's the path.
Fundamentally, we need to look at the bigger picture from an architectural point of view, then pick two or three programs to champion. Steve, I tell you this all the time, you're in a position now, before you retire, to help bring the controller community into shaping the next level of what their job looks like. Build that vision with them, not for them. You can see it, but we need to put you with someone who can make it visual, mock up that concept of operations, and that would be an extraordinary contribution. If you can partner with ATCA and come up with an initiative that puts in visual form what a future controller's job looks like, that's one of the best things you can do for aviation, because we don't need unnecessary friction as we move forward. The jobs will be there.
Jim Barry
John, is there anything else you want to make sure we've communicated, regardless of the questions I've asked?
John Illson
The point that's always in the back of my mind, probably because of where I am in my career, is, wouldn't it be a shame if aviation became what I see in the train industry, very rooted in tradition and legacy systems, unable to move forward, when there's so much we could do. Working with Nancy and Steve at ICAO and the UN, I got to see how much of the world doesn't have the benefits we have from aviation. They could. They could leapfrog a lot of the legacy technology we're dealing with today.
As a global industry, I'd hope that with people like Steve and Nancy continuing to push things forward, we can help the industry become more global, and not just have the largest and most developed countries receiving the majority of the benefits. There are still perhaps two-thirds of ICAO's member states, over 100 countries, with minimal air traffic, which means minimal benefit to their society and commerce. How do we keep pushing on that? Sometimes the most established systems can be the most resistant to change, and we need to figure out how to move past that.
Stephen Creamer
I'm with John. I work with a couple of countries that are always challenging assumptions and willing to invest in making change happen. They want to be leaders in their own right, in their own part of the world. What we all experienced at ICAO is that different regions have different cultural aspects you have to work with. You can't simply impose a solution, you have to adapt your approach to be workable in that part of the world. If you're successful at that, you find they can innovate incredibly quickly.
Nancy was involved in the turnaround for Africa. There were significant safety challenges, a great deal of operational difficulty, and a lack of adherence to international standards. At some point it became politically important to change that, and Nancy helped lead that work. The USOAP audit program got to the point where it was publicly reflecting how states were performing, and that created accountability. Africa is a dramatically different situation today, 15 years later. The population on the continent has an average age of around 22, nearly universal mobile internet access, and engagement with AI tools. What's happening on that continent is remarkable, and aviation is going to be a major part of whatever that story becomes.
Rwanda was on the cutting edge of the original drone delivery work, and it has spread to several other countries. It was a huge leap to be able to deliver medical supplies that way, and it has saved thousands of lives. The community championed that change. Where you have the need is where you find the fastest innovation.
I had someone come to me with a product they wanted to deploy in the United States, and my first question was, what's the problem you're trying to solve? Because who's going to buy that? That question is the right place to start, and it's the right place to end.
Jim Barry
We may start our conversation with that challenge, and end it the same way. Go ahead, you were going to finish.
Stephen Creamer
I'm very optimistic about where aviation is going. The challenge in our community is that I'm a strong believer in the ICAO strategy, partly because I helped prepare it, and, as Nancy said, I had to learn to work with people I didn't initially think had the full picture. After working with them and understanding their needs, we made sure we incorporated those needs into the solution. When people buy in, you can get things done. That's part of why ATCA is actively lobbying and advocating with Congress now, because we need this to be the success story of the people who ultimately benefit from it, not just the agencies involved. If legislators think they're succeeding by doing things for aviation, that's a good outcome for everyone.
Jim Barry
Nancy, bring it home for us. How would you like to wrap this up?
Nancy Graham
I think this is the most exciting period in aviation to date, for a number of reasons. Private investment has freed us from always being dependent on government funding. And in doing so, we need to train and coach the industry to work collaboratively with regulators, so it's a genuine partnership.
The other area that needs attention, which is where I'm focusing more of my energy, is working with investors, because their expectations are sometimes unrealistic, and that creates pressure that isn't always helpful. There's a margin that needs to be left in for the learning process, and investors need to understand what realistic expectations look like in this industry. That's not a large adjustment, but it matters.
I think it's an exciting period. We're headed in the right direction. We have a lot of people who are genuinely committed to getting this right. Space is going to accelerate things further regardless. There's nothing but possibility in front of us.
